Don't Let Pefection Be the Enemy of the Good

Frens, real talk. The Coronavirus isn't going to be over any time soon. Even with good hygiene and social distancing we're going to experience outbreak cycles until there is (hopefully) herd immunity (vaccines are deployed and/or the virus eventually runs through most of the population). There is a good chance you'll catch it before vaccines are available. The important thing is to delay propagation until effective anti-viral therapy is identified and available to mitigate severity of symptoms, and of course avoid creating peaks that overwhelm hospitals.

This note isn't about hygiene or general social distancing; there are many guides out there already. I'm not going to lay down yet another specific list of rules. What I want to talk about is how to think about practical, sustainable risk management. How to devise processes you can live with for months while taking care of family and other critical responsibilities.

Like, what does "essential" mean in the directive to suspend non-essential contact? While you cannot eliminate risk, you can reduce it while factoring in the utility of various activities. Here are some examples of how to think about the trade-offs:

• You and your household need to eat. Can you acquire food 100% safely? No. Can you queue the shopping list and visit store less frequently? Yes. Can you switch from eating at a restaurant to take-out or delivery? Yes. (Can you leave a bigger tip? Please do.) Like me, can you cook more often at home even if you don't normally? Yes. All of these practices reduce risk.
   
• The trend is to move physical meetings to call/video. Is it ideal? Perhaps not for all content. Not for people with hearing impairment (like me). Is it better than creating a vector or not meeting at all? Heck yeah. Just this morning I enjoyed book club via video chat for the first time.
   
• We all need some social contact, preferably not all virtual. Do you really need to meet someone you're not already in regular physical contact with? Maybe so, I'm not going to judge. Consider doing it outside without touching each other or anything else. Take a walk together.
   
• Am I going to suspend physical contact with partners at this time? No. Is that a risk? A high one, yes, but we're not willing to live without physical contact for months while we're apparently healthy. I will break physical contact for a 2 week quarantine if any of us show relevant symptoms or live/work with someone testing positive. Is that an ideal policy given that virus can be shed for at least a week before symptoms appear? No. Is it better than having no policy? Yes.
   
• Do you normally hire (what are now higher risk) services like bodywork, house cleaning? How often essential? Consider doubling or tripling the period. Tip prodigiously and/or buy gift certificates to use later, or even better if you have the means: keep paying them on the usual cadence as if the work was performed. Sole proprietorship is hard even without a public health disaster, so support your service people as much as you can. This reduces their risk as well as yours.
   
• Many of you don't have the option to work from home. I salute you for keeping the real world running. Given your risk profile, does that mean you give up on social distancing? No. You can still reduce risk by being aware of what you do outside of work.

Some good news: You can do this! You already manage risk all the time without even thinking about it. You refrigerate perishables. You use condoms. You wear a seat belt. Does this guarantee you won't incur infection or injury? No. Is it safer? Yes. You can make new procedures like this that encode reasonable trade-offs, with repetition becoming a program that executes with few if any spoons because the decisions are already made.

You'll occasionally feel overwhelmed with frustration or despair, throwing up your hands going fuck, this is impossible. It's okay to register and process those feelings. Is it actually impossible? No.

Pre-think and discuss the trade-offs. Empower yourself and family/housemates. Encode your risk agreements into procedures. Is it going to be perfect? No. Though I'm the designated shopper, Mom won't promise that she'll never step into the grocery store. You know what? I don't run her life, I just advise on the risks and let her make her own decisions. Are we going to make occasional exceptions and mistakes? Sure. We keep going, knowing that every day is a new opportunity to manage risk a little better.

(This constant tracing of connections and probabilities is how my brain works all. the. time. You're welcome.)

2020-03-15

By Val Delane
This work is licensed under CC BY-NC-ND 4.0