Observe Gaps and Select Next Project

Two types of gaps are under consideration. Both are disparity between what is and what could be:

• Resource: potential that could be tapped to generate power
• Problem: difference between desired and actual situation

Resource gaps and problem gaps are of different types but in the same cycle. They both represent opportunities that should be evaluated before committing to a project or system.

Resources draw first attention because they are easy to understand. They range from obviously valuable (therefore rapidly identified and controlled), of speculative value (under development), or not yet understood to be valuable.

Problems are relatively complex but still represent opportunities because someone wants them solved. The important problems are hard to solve, and many are the result of greedy exploitation of resources.

Life, by definition, exploits opportunities to propagate itself. Bacteria, insects, people, and organizations all succeed by identifying gaps and bridging them with "circuits" to power or inform their system. Some systems enter healthy homeostasis and allow diversity; others are malignant and squash diversity.

In the business of consuming resources and solving problems, life generates extropy (vital local order) and entropy (disorder relative to itself). Disorder is expelled to the edges, i.e., waste. That output might be useful as input to something/someone else with lower power requirements or different processing system. Or, it might be something that was dilute and irritating as input, rejected during processing, concentrated to toxic level as output—foisting a cost upon the larger ecosystem.

Organizations run by people exceptionally talented at exploitation tend to externalize costs, control resources, and focus their power. Such behavior suspends or eliminates opportunities for others. This creates a reinforcing feedback loop: those in power reinforce patterns of law, convention, and tradition that further encourage consolidation and squeeze out competition.

To summarize, life is a cycle of crossing gaps: noticing a problem, finding and using a resource to solve that problem, and making a new problem. Humans excel at the latter.

How about Let's Do Better by minimizing negative social impact of new ventures. Here is a rubric to help with that:

Notice unbridged gap between what is and could/should be

• Add to separate note "Menu of gaps"
• Choose a gap to evaluate

Why isn't gap bridged already, or only partly?

• Is it not a worthy opportunity?
• Were there previous attempts? If so, why did they fail?
• Examine my boggle. What's at the root of it? Is the gap between a reasonable expectation and outcome?
• If crossing is apparently infeasible, that generates suffering. I can address that discomfort either by releasing the expectation or being stubborn and trying anyway.
• Grant me the wisdom to know the difference between
  The courage to change the things I cannot accept
  And being an impatient, judgmental asshole: Should gap should be bridged?
• Improve socioeconomic integrity
• Do likely benefits outweigh potential harm by at least an order of magnitude? Preferably 2?
• Seriously—explore possible downstream effects. Get help with this.
• "Your scientists were so preoccupied with whether or not they could, they didn't stop to think if they should." (Jurassic Park)
• "Think plausibility and consequences, rather than probability." See We Need to Let Go of the Bell Curve by Adrian Gore
• "Sometimes you look around and are like, 'WHY ISN'T THIS A THING?' and the answer is, 'HOLE IN THE MARKET! GO FOR IT!' But SOMETIMES, the answer is, "Because It Is Not A Good Idea, Please Talk To A Lawyer, Oh My God."
• Don't inflict iatrogenic harm by leaping in to fix something. Maybe it's that way for a good reason. Maybe it needs a gentle approach. Generally avoid intervention unless it is obvious that lack of intervention is much more dangerous. Is new bridge actually needed to cross the gap?
• Can an existing system be used as intended, or ethically hacked?
• "Do it with an existing system if you can. Do it with a small system if you can." See Systemantics by John Gall and D.H. Gall.
• Most everything Obvious is actually Complicated. It's hard to anticipate the consequences of modifying or replacing an existing system with high connectivity to its environment.
• "In setting up a new System, tread softly. You may be disturbing another System that is actually working." See The Systems Bible by John Gall
• To add is folly; to abstain, wise; subtract, divine. Can solution be re-framed to removing something instead of adding? E.g.:
• Participate in existing system that is disrupting or dismantling a bad system
• (On the other hand, before you tear down a system, consider who and what will exploit that gap again.)

Can gap be bridged further upstream for better leverage?

• See Places to Intervene in a System by Donella Meadows
• Ignore the constant; attend the coefficient; target the exponent. E.g.:
• Good: Sterilize and release fresh batches of mosquitoes to temporarily reduce population
• Amazing: Infect entire local mosquito population with Wolbachia bacteria (that spreads itself) so they are unable to host Dengue virus

Define success and exit criteria

• Maximize perspective and minimize gaming with multiple unrelated metrics (not just profit!)
• As gaining experience, be willing to adjust measurements and goals—but beware sunk cost fallacy
• Criteria to exit?
• Yay, it works! Continue, or hand off to someone else?
• Or, yay, I disproved my hypothesis!

Consider barriers and risks to success. How to bypass and mitigate, respectively?

• Who benefits from the gap remaining uncrossed or, more likely, bridged with their own system? How much will bypassing it piss them off and how might that manifest?
• What is attack surface of system under consideration?
• How will it be exploited?
• At what point does cost of risk mitigation approach the cost of realized risk?

Consider resources required

• Start as cheaply as possible
• Can it become self-supporting by generating ethical profit and/or attracting others to help? Again, think exponentially.

2022-01-15

By Val Delane
This work is licensed under CC BY-NC-ND 4.0